EvaluatePharma estimates $785 billion worldwide sales in 2016

May 28, 2010
Pharmaceutical Commerce, Pharmaceutical Commerce - May/June 2010,

Majority of top 20 companies to experience growth in sales

Pharmaceutical companies fared better than predicted in 2009, according to EvaluatePharma’s World Preview 2016. The worldwide market grew 2.6%, with pandemic flu vaccines contributing almost a third of that growth. Last year, the company had predicted a 0.7% downturn for the industry.

EvaluatePharma’s global forecast shows modest year-on-year market growth, averaging 2.9% between 2010 and 2016, when global prescription drug sales are expected to reach $785 billion.

That’s a few hundred billion dollars off from IMS Health’s global forecast, which sees pharmaceutical sales worldwide reaching $1.1 trillion in 2014.

Pfizer was the biggest seller of drugs in 2009 ($55.3 billion), and EvaluatePharma expects the company to maintain the top spot in 2016, but with lower sales ($47.1 billion). Fifteen of the 20 biggest companies are expected to see increases in sales by 2016, with Abbott Laboratories, Baxter International, Gilead Sciences, Novo Nordisk and Teva Pharmaceutical seeing 6% increases or higher. AstraZeneca will be taking the biggest hit in sales, down 5% by 2016, the same year its blockbuster anti-cholesterol agent Crestor is scheduled to lose patent protection.

Humira, the anti-rheumatic injectable from Abbott Laboratories, is expected to be the world’s largest selling product in 2016, with $10.1 billion in sales. Roche’s Avastin, for the treatment of cancer, will be the second largest drug at $8.9 billion in sales. Last month Thomson Reuters released a forecast for top-selling drugs in 2014, putting Avastin at the top, with $8.9 billion in sales, versus the second-place Humira, with $8.5 billion in sales.

Oncology will remain the largest drug segment in 2016, with $72.8 billion in sales driven by Roche’s Avastin, Herceptin and Rituxan. Anti-coagulants will see the biggest jump, experiencing an 11% increase to $14.1 billion in sales, thanks to new oral treatments in the category.

In 2016, small molecule drugs will still make up the majority of the top 100 selling drugs, with 52% in sales versus 48% for biotechnology.

Download the EvaluatePharma World Preview 2016.